The Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Response Operation: A Prognosis for the Next Few Days

If USCG's figures from last week still apply, then only 10% of the oil/water mix recovered so far is oil. However, the model I run predicts that more than 50% of the spilled oil will naturally disperse and/or evaporate within five days. Factor in all the dispersant that's being used both on the sea surface and on the seabed, favourable winds ( for the most part ), plus the reported 13,000 barrels of oil that have been burned at sea, and one can readily see that even though this is a continuous spill, a high percentage of the spilled oil has not made it to shore.

Unfortunately, changing weather patterns over the course of the next few days will make mechanical recovery at sea difficult, if not impossible; controlled burning will probably also not be feasible. And while the stiff winds and waves that are forecast tend to enhance the natural dispersion and breakup of the oil, the winds are headed in the wrong direction, unfortunately, making eventual landfall of much of the oil a strong possibility. But because shoreline protection booms may not hold in this kind of weather, beach cleanup may be the most viable response option for the next few days, especially if tarballs wash ashore. Getting oil out of marshes, though, where the bulk of the slick appears headed, is a major challenge at any time.