I have run NOAA's ADIOS2 ( Automated Data Enquiry for Oil Spills ) software for the Deepwater Horizon spill in the Gulf of Mexico. ADIOS2 is an oil weathering model. Not knowing the precise type of Mississippi Canyon light crude involved, I set it for the Block 72 type. For the sake of simplicity, I ran it for an instantaneous spill of 1000 barrels, with 20 knot winds coming from the southeast, and an ocean temperature of 67 degrees Fahrenheit.
With the proviso that ADIOS2 was designed for a spill of oil at the water's surface, as opposed to the Gulf spill, where oil is released 5000 feet below the surface, the software predicts that after as little as two days thirty percent of the release will evaporate. After five days under such conditions a further 65 percent would have dispersed, leaving only about 5% of the original oil in the surface. However, so far as I can determine, the software does not account for emulsification of the crude with water, which would tend to result in a significantly larger volume of oil/water mixture that responders would be faced with. It is this emulsion which accounts for the fact that most of the oil/water mix that is being recovered consists of water.
With the proviso that ADIOS2 was designed for a spill of oil at the water's surface, as opposed to the Gulf spill, where oil is released 5000 feet below the surface, the software predicts that after as little as two days thirty percent of the release will evaporate. After five days under such conditions a further 65 percent would have dispersed, leaving only about 5% of the original oil in the surface. However, so far as I can determine, the software does not account for emulsification of the crude with water, which would tend to result in a significantly larger volume of oil/water mixture that responders would be faced with. It is this emulsion which accounts for the fact that most of the oil/water mix that is being recovered consists of water.
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